Seven winners from as many Formula 1 races is something which may not happen again in our lifetimes. Eight could be possible in Valencia this weekend and there are still at least four potential victors yet to stand atop the podium in 2012.
Button, Alonso, Rosberg, Vettel, Maldonado, Webber and Hamilton. What a line-up. All winners within the space of 12 weeks, confirming why we looked forward to this championship so much. We all believed it would be very open back at pre-season testing, but nobody in their wildest dreams would have predicted that run.
So, if we are to see an eighth winner to delight the Formula 1 romantics, who’s the favourite to get the job done? Michael Schumacher springs to mind and so do Lotus – and viewing their recent form, one would have to look towards Romain Grosjean other than Kimi Räikkönen. In the case of all three, Friday could well be the most important day of the weekend; as we saw with Kimi in Monaco, any significant loss of track time on the run-up to qualifying will almost certainly ruin your chances.
There are a few things to take into account for Valencia. Rain is not a major threat, but air temperatures are forecast to hit 34°C (93°F) on Sunday. Pirelli’s Paul Hembery has already pin-pointed qualifying as the crucial point, although race day is expected to be both brighter and warmer – and we’ve seen in the past that such changes in the weather during a race weekend can throw up a number of surprises.
I am cautiously optimistic about Lotus…cautious because when I last tipped them, in Monaco, their promise led to nothing. However, in similarly warm conditions, they picked up one second place, two thirds and one fourth in Bahrain and Spain. Throw in the facts that Grosjean was superb with tyre management last time out in Canada and that the Franco-Swiss has already won Valencia in GP2; he has a really good chance and, should Kimi have a clean weekend, something very special could happen.
So, what of Schumacher? Mercedes is changing the failed hydraulic coupling which allowed his DRS to become jammed open in Montreal, resulting in his fifth retirement from five races and fourth because of a mechanical mishap. It really does seem that all of the luck from his Ferrari days has been converted to the exact opposite now – particularly strange because team-mate Nico Rosberg is yet to run into such trouble during a race. This has been the source of much, much frustration back in Brackley and the guys there are as determined as ever to analyse each failure one by one.
It will be interesting to see how Lewis Hamilton attacks this weekend. This may be his sixth season of F1, but only now is Lewis able to settle for a third, fourth or even fifth place when that is the most on offer. Remember how disappointed he was to drop from pole to third back in Australia? But once Alonso and Pérez proved how topsy-turvy this year was going to be in Malaysia, Hamilton went into a different, more conservative mode which is necessary to win the title – and duly followed it up with a third consecutive rostrum result in China. More of that will do just fine. Mark Webber has proven it too, having finished fourth in as many races at the start of the year, waited patiently for his win and propelled himself back into the fight.
The Constructors’ Championship seems more clear cut; nobody will win that with one driver, so at the moment the only genuine contenders are Red Bull and McLaren. We will have to see whether the likes of Räikkönen and Felipe Massa can up their games. That said, we still have three races to go before reaching the halfway point of F1 2012; if you look at what’s happened already, we’re set for way more surprises, upsets, u-turns and twists. Can Sauber clinch victory? When will Force India return to the podium? It is usually my job to answer such questions, not ask them, but under such circumstances I hope I’m forgiven. Bring on winner number eight!
And for those Valencia haters out there…you’ve got nothing to be worried about. You should know by now that the current format guarantees action, not least as some drivers will elect for three stops this weekend whereas others could try two. As I mentioned before, the changes in temperature between qualifying and the race will throw another variable into the mix. If you’re still not convinced, then rest assured that the Street Circuit – by name and by nature – is likely to take a sabbatical in 2013.
At a glance:
- Valencia pole position sitters
- Valencia Grand Prix winners
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The facts: Valencia Street Circuit
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Laps 57
Direction Clockwise
Corners 25
Length 5.419 km / 3.367 mi
First championship race 2008
First winner Felipe Massa – Ferrari
Lap record 1:38.683 / T. Glock / Toyota / 2009
Local start time 2pm (BST +1)
Slick Pirelli tyre compounds
Soft (yellow markings) & Super Soft (white markings)
DRS zone
Detection: Between Turns 7 and 8
Activation: Exit of swing bridge until braking zone for Turn 12
FIA driver steward
Mika Salo
2011 pole position sitter
Sebastian Vettel – Red Bull-Renault
2011 Grand Prix winner
Sebastian Vettel – Red Bull-Renault
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Circuit changes for 2012
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- Some of the artificial grass around the track has been replaced with a more durable product; last year, parts became loose and were a potential hazard
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Gregory Haines
GPUpdate.net Editor
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